模擬聯(lián)合國(guó)立場(chǎng)文件用語

【專家解說】：如果安理會(huì)不能就制裁伊朗達(dá)成一致，美國(guó)將“單干”，繞過聯(lián)合國(guó)，聯(lián)合自己的鐵桿盟友，組成特定的“制裁聯(lián)盟”，對(duì)伊朗實(shí)施制裁。 但美國(guó)暫時(shí)還不會(huì)考慮對(duì)伊朗實(shí)施全面經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁，特別是石油禁運(yùn)。因?yàn)槿绻晾拭刻旒s300萬桶的原油出口被停止，國(guó)際油價(jià)就會(huì)大幅度攀升。這既會(huì)傷及美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，也會(huì)殃及其他國(guó)家，影響其參與制裁的積極性。 其三，美國(guó)、以色列對(duì)伊朗核設(shè)施等主要目標(biāo)實(shí)施外科手術(shù)式打擊。布什政府一直沒有排除對(duì)伊朗采取軍事行動(dòng)的可能。在美國(guó)許多鷹派看來，除了軍事手段外，美國(guó)沒有其他解決伊朗核問題的有效途徑，參議員麥卡恩聲稱，“只有一件事比采取軍事行動(dòng)更糟，那就是出現(xiàn)一個(gè)用核武器武裝起來的伊朗?！彪S著伊核問題的不斷升級(jí)，美國(guó)對(duì)伊朗采取軍事打擊的可能性也在增加。最近，美國(guó)把駐伊拉克部隊(duì)從12．7萬人增加到14萬人。這一增兵舉動(dòng)既是應(yīng)對(duì)伊拉克持續(xù)惡化的安全形勢(shì)，也不排除為對(duì)伊朗動(dòng)武做準(zhǔn)備。 此外，以色列也可能單獨(dú)對(duì)伊朗發(fā)動(dòng)先發(fā)制人的打擊。由于地緣政治原因，以色列比美國(guó)更擔(dān)心伊朗的核計(jì)劃，甚至認(rèn)為伊朗在2～3年內(nèi)就可能制造出核武器。因此，以色列一直在為對(duì)伊朗采取軍事行動(dòng)做準(zhǔn)備。它已向美國(guó)購(gòu)買了用于攻擊地下掩體目標(biāo)的智能炸彈，并將從德國(guó)購(gòu)進(jìn)兩艘能夠進(jìn)行核打擊的先進(jìn)潛艇。據(jù)西方媒體報(bào)道，以色列空軍司令埃利澤·沙凱迪最近被任命為全面負(fù)責(zé)“伊朗戰(zhàn)線”的司令官。 制裁阻力重重 通過制裁來削弱和孤立伊朗，是美國(guó)現(xiàn)階段的既定政策。美國(guó)試圖以伊朗拒絕暫停鈾濃縮為借口建立反伊聯(lián)盟，推動(dòng)安理會(huì)對(duì)伊朗實(shí)施制裁。由于伊朗是主要能源出口國(guó)，同許多大國(guó)有密切的經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系，包括歐盟、俄羅斯、印度等國(guó)在內(nèi)的許多國(guó)家并不希望制裁伊朗。而且，國(guó)際原子能機(jī)構(gòu)迄今并未發(fā)現(xiàn)伊朗發(fā)展核武器的證據(jù)，對(duì)伊實(shí)施嚴(yán)厲制裁法理不足。 俄羅斯外長(zhǎng)拉夫羅夫9月15日重申，俄對(duì)伊核問題的立場(chǎng)是，既不排除對(duì)伊朗實(shí)施制裁，也不排除否決該制裁的可能。俄處理伊朗核問題的慣用手法是，先用模棱兩可的態(tài)度壓伊朗做出妥協(xié)，在西方動(dòng)真格時(shí)再拉伊朗一把。美國(guó)要制裁伊朗，必須先過俄羅斯這一關(guān)。 歐盟一直認(rèn)為，制裁只能將伊朗推向更為強(qiáng)烈的對(duì)抗境地。歐洲國(guó)家在經(jīng)貿(mào)上與伊朗保持密切聯(lián)系。德國(guó)、法國(guó)、意大利分別是伊朗第二、第三、第四大貿(mào)易伙伴。歐洲的幾大石油公司都在伊朗有大宗業(yè)務(wù)。如果伊朗受到制裁，歐盟利益將首當(dāng)其沖地受到打擊。此外，歐盟還認(rèn)為，西方不僅需要在核不擴(kuò)散問題上同伊朗合作，而且也需要在黎巴嫩、伊拉克、巴勒斯坦等問題上同它合作。制裁會(huì)使伊朗在上述問題上同西方搗亂。 發(fā)展中國(guó)家歷來不滿美國(guó)在國(guó)際事務(wù)中，特別是核不擴(kuò)散問題上所持的雙重標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。布什最近冒出的“伊斯蘭法西斯主義”的提法，又引起一些伊斯蘭國(guó)家的強(qiáng)烈反感。 美國(guó)要?jiǎng)裾f安理會(huì)中的發(fā)展中國(guó)家表態(tài)支持制裁伊朗，也不容易。在哈瓦那剛剛結(jié)束的第14次不結(jié)盟運(yùn)動(dòng)首腦會(huì)議上，首腦們發(fā)表聯(lián)合聲明，支持伊朗和平利用核能，相信伊核問題能通過和平對(duì)話得到解決。委內(nèi)瑞拉總統(tǒng)查韋斯更明確表示：“伊朗現(xiàn)在面臨威脅”……“我們會(huì)與你們站在一起”。深受感動(dòng)的內(nèi)賈德干脆稱自己和查氏是與美國(guó)戰(zhàn)斗的“難兄難弟”。 想說動(dòng)武不容易 伊朗不同于薩達(dá)姆統(tǒng)治下的伊拉克，其經(jīng)濟(jì)力量、軍事實(shí)力均不可小覷，再加上伊朗地形復(fù)雜、核設(shè)施分散等原因，美國(guó)、以色列對(duì)伊朗實(shí)施軍事打擊存在一定難度。 此外，伊朗對(duì)中東地區(qū)其他國(guó)家什葉派及激進(jìn)勢(shì)力有重要影響。美國(guó)全力支持的以色列在黎以沖突中遭遇挫折，證明中東地區(qū)什葉派反美武裝實(shí)力不能小視。從能源上看，伊朗是石油輸出國(guó)組織中的第二大石油出口國(guó)，豐富的油氣資源使其在國(guó)際能源市場(chǎng)上舉足輕重。伊朗還控制著波斯灣石油運(yùn)輸通道——霍爾木茲海峽。一旦戰(zhàn)火燃起，伊朗中斷石油輸出或封鎖霍爾木茲海峽，都將對(duì)國(guó)際油價(jià)帶來致命的打擊。 最近有報(bào)道說，美國(guó)國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)拉姆斯菲爾德也對(duì)解決伊朗核計(jì)劃的“軍事方案”提出尖銳反對(duì)意見。根據(jù)美國(guó)情報(bào)部門估計(jì)，伊朗的核技術(shù)發(fā)展仍處于研究階段，要成功制造核武器，仍需5～10年時(shí)間。美以等仍有充分時(shí)間為軍事打擊做好外交等準(zhǔn)備。特別是，美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)中期選舉在即，伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)給共和黨帶來的負(fù)面影響，使布什在選舉前不會(huì)輕舉妄動(dòng)。從美方的軍事能力來看，對(duì)伊朗采取外科手術(shù)式打擊絕對(duì)不是問題，關(guān)鍵在于如何應(yīng)對(duì)軍事打擊后出現(xiàn)的動(dòng)蕩局面。有分析認(rèn)為，國(guó)會(huì)中期選舉之后，美國(guó)有可能伙同以色列對(duì)伊朗核設(shè)施進(jìn)行打擊。這種可能雖然不大，但不能完全排除。 和談仍是惟一最好選擇 對(duì)美國(guó)和伊朗而言，選擇對(duì)抗并非明智之舉，無論是動(dòng)武，還是實(shí)施全面經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁，結(jié)果都將是兩敗俱傷。談判解決伊朗核問題最符合各方利益。 目前，談判解決伊朗核問題仍有希望。歐盟現(xiàn)任輪值主席國(guó)芬蘭外長(zhǎng)圖奧米奧亞明確表示，現(xiàn)在還不是對(duì)伊朗實(shí)行制裁的時(shí)候，歐盟主張繼續(xù)同伊朗進(jìn)行嚴(yán)肅對(duì)話，通過外交手段解決伊朗核問題。近日，歐盟負(fù)責(zé)外交與安全政策的高級(jí)代表索拉納與伊朗核問題首席談判代表拉里賈尼舉行了會(huì)談并取得一定進(jìn)展。 美國(guó)也沒有把和談之門完全關(guān)上。國(guó)務(wù)卿賴斯9月11日在加拿大接受記者提問時(shí)表示，伊朗需要在談判開始之前停止鈾濃縮活動(dòng)，即使是暫時(shí)性停止也可以接受。美國(guó)駐國(guó)際原子能機(jī)構(gòu)的代表則提出一邊實(shí)施制裁，一邊進(jìn)行外交談判的建議。上述表態(tài)為和談?lì)A(yù)留了一定空間。 中國(guó)歷來反對(duì)一切形式的核擴(kuò)散，主張以政治和外交手段解決擴(kuò)散問題，堅(jiān)決反對(duì)對(duì)伊朗實(shí)施制裁。9月13日，中國(guó)代表在國(guó)際原子能機(jī)構(gòu)理事會(huì)審議伊朗核問題時(shí)表示，中方希望伊方執(zhí)行聯(lián)合國(guó)安理會(huì)和國(guó)際原子能機(jī)構(gòu)的有關(guān)決議，繼續(xù)與國(guó)際原子能機(jī)構(gòu)全面合作，為復(fù)談創(chuàng)造條件。同時(shí)，中方也希望其他有關(guān)各方繼續(xù)保持冷靜和克制，堅(jiān)持和平解決方向?？磥硪梁藛栴}仍存有和平解決的希望。 If the Security Council can not reach agreement on sanctions against Iran, the United States will "go it alone", bypassing the United Nations, Joint their loyal allies, and the specific composition of the "Union sanctions," to impose sanctions on Iran. However, the United States temporarily to Iran will not consider a comprehensive economic sanctions, especially the oil embargo. If Iran daily about 3 million barrels of crude oil exports had been suspended, international oil prices will be rising dramatically. This will not only hurt the U.S. economy, also affected other countries, the sanctions affect their participation in the initiative. Third, the United States and Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities and other major targets, surgical operation-style strike. The Bush administration has not ruled out the right of Iran to take military action possible. Many hawks in the United States appears, in addition to military means, the United States is no other solution to the Iran nuclear issue, is an effective way Senator McCann claimed, "only one thing than to take military action even worse, It is the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran. "With the Iranian nuclear problem is escalating The United States on Iran the possibility of a military strike is also increasing. Recently, the U.S. troops stationed in Iraq from 127,000 people to 140,000 people. The move is sending more troops to deal with Iraq's continued deterioration of the security situation, would not exclude the possibility of using force against Iran to prepare. Furthermore, Israel may also separate the Iranian launch a pre-emptive strike. Due to geopolitical reasons, Israel than the United States is worried that Iran's nuclear program. even in 2-3 years Iran could produce nuclear weapons. Therefore, Israel has been in Iran for the right to take military operations. It has already been purchased for the United States to attack underground bunkers target smart bombs, and bought two from Germany to launch a nuclear attack submarines advanced. According to Western media reports, Israeli Air Force Commander Eliezer Shakaidi recent appointment as overall responsibility for the "Iran front," the commander. A lot of resistance through sanctions to weaken the sanctions and isolation of Iran, is the established policy of the United States at this stage. The United States has attempted to Iran refuses to suspend uranium enrichment as an excuse to build an anti-Iraq alliance, and get the Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran. Because Iran is a major energy exporter, with many large state-owned closer economic relations, including the EU, Russia, India, among other countries, many countries did not want sanctions against Iran. Furthermore, the International Atomic Energy Agency has found that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons evidence that the imposition of severe sanctions against Iraq less than legal. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on September 15 reiterated that the nuclear issue of Iraq and Russia's position is that neither ruled out the imposition of sanctions on Iran, does not rule out veto the sanctions are possible. Russia deal with the issue of Iran's nuclear trick, first with ambiguous attitude pressure Iran to compromise put into action in the West when Layilang one. United States sanctions against Iran, Russia must cross this hurdle. The EU believed that sanctions would only push Iran more strongly against the state. European countries in the economic and trade with Iran in close contact. Germany, France, Iran, Italy were second, third, fourth largest trading partner. Europe has several big oil companies in Iran bulk business. If Iran sanctions, the EU interests will be the first to suffer from combat. In addition, the EU also believes that the West need not only on the issue of nuclear non-proliferation cooperation with Iran, but also in Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine and other issues with it. Iran sanctions will on the issue with the Western disturbance. Developing countries have traditionally dissatisfied with the United States in international affairs, particularly in the nuclear non-proliferation issues, the double standard. Bush has recently cropped up an "Islamic fascism" was also the subject of some Islamic countries strongly resent. The United States wants to persuade the Council of the developing countries expressed support for sanctions against Iran, it was not easy. Havana in the just-concluded 14th Non-Aligned Movement summit, the heads of state issued a joint statement, support for Iran's peaceful use of nuclear energy, I believe that the Iranian nuclear issue through peaceful dialogue to be resolved. Venezuelan President Chavez more clear : "Iran is now facing the threat" ... "We will stand together with you." Deeply touched by the Nejad simply call themselves and Richards with the United States fighting "pair of fellow sufferers." The use of force is not easy to say Iran is different from Saddam's rule of Iraq, its economic strength, have considerable military strength, coupled with the complex topography of Iran nuclear facilities scattered other reasons, the United States, Israel's military actions against Iran, there is a certain degree of difficulty. In addition, Iran in the Middle East region and other countries Shiite radical forces have an important impact. The United States fully supports Israel in the conflict between Lebanon and Israel who have suffered setbacks to prove that the Middle East region Shiite anti-American armed strength can not belittle. From the energy perspective, Iran is OPEC's second largest oil exporter, rich oil and gas resources in international energy markets actor. Iran is also in control of the Persian Gulf oil transport corridor -- the Strait of Hormuz. once the war started, Iran suspended oil exports or blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the international oil prices will deal a fatal blow. A recent report said, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld also to resolve the Iranian nuclear program "military options" expressed sharp opposition. According to American intelligence estimates that Iran's nuclear technology development is still at the research stage, the successful production of nuclear weapons. still 5-10 years. Such as the United States still have enough time to do a military strike diplomatic preparations. In particular, the United States midterm Congressional elections approaching, the war in Iraq to the Republican Party, the negative impact Bush in the pre-election period will not act rashly. From the United States military capability, on Iran surgical strikes against no problem, The key lies in how to deal with military strikes after the upheaval. Some analysts believe that the midterm Congressional elections, the United States may, together with Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities to fight. This may be not much, but can not be completely ruled out. Negotiation is the only best option for the United States and Iran, the confrontation is not a wise choice, whether to use force or the implementation of comprehensive economic sanctions, the result will be a lose-lose. Negotiations to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue best interests of all parties. Currently, negotiations to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue is still hopeful. Holds the EU's rotating presidency Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja said explicitly that it is not the imposition of sanctions on Iran when EU calls for Iran to engage in serious dialogue, through diplomatic means to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. Recently, EU foreign and security policy, Javier Solana, High Representative of the Iranian nuclear issue and the chief negotiator at the talks Editorials and have made certain progress. The United States did not consider the peace talks door ajar. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on September 11 in Canada with a reporter's question, said, Iran needs prior to the start of negotiations to stop its uranium enrichment activities, even a temporary halt would be acceptable. U.S. ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency representatives suggested imposition of sanctions side, the side of the diplomatic negotiations. These stand for peace talks set aside a certain space. China has always been opposed to all forms of nuclear proliferation, advocates a political and diplomatic means to solve the proliferation problem. resolutely opposed to the imposition of sanctions on Iran. September 13, the Chinese representative to the IAEA Board of Governors to consider the Iran nuclear issue, said China hopes Iraq to implement the UN Security Council and the relevant resolutions of the International Atomic Energy Agency. continue to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency, to create conditions for the resumption of talks. Meanwhile, the Chinese side also hopes other parties concerned to continue to remain calm and exercise restraint, uphold peace settlement. It seems the Iranian nuclear issue is still hope for a peaceful settlement.