光伏行業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀和將來？

優(yōu)質(zhì)回答：哈飛sa

優(yōu)質(zhì)回答：不要進來了，現(xiàn)狀歐洲也開始雙反了，光伏項目基本都叫停了，加上國內(nèi)技術(shù)不行，沒有專業(yè)發(fā)展！

優(yōu)質(zhì)回答：目前不要進來，過一兩年再說，現(xiàn)在全行業(yè)基本已停滯了。

優(yōu)質(zhì)回答：先說我周圍的實例吧：去年有兩個同學(xué)進入這個行業(yè)，據(jù)他們說是打了一年的醬油。 另外兩個同學(xué)讀研就是這個方向，馬上可以拿到小專利了。但是。。。再看看現(xiàn)在的行業(yè)大背景：1、產(chǎn)能過剩；前期的光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展蓬勃，利潤優(yōu)厚，大家看來算作國內(nèi)的高端產(chǎn)業(yè)，于是商家蜂擁而至，大量生產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致利潤陡降，更甚的是生產(chǎn)過剩，競爭加劇，扛不住的就要犧牲。2、太依賴出口；難以想象的是，如此龐大的產(chǎn)業(yè)竟然90%依賴出口，人家不買了，提高關(guān)稅了，你理所當然就死了！3、政府制度；政府投入大量資金扶持光伏生產(chǎn)，有甜頭啊，這必將吸引一眾人入行，由此也導(dǎo)致了1中所說的狀況；你想當初的國企為什么那么柔弱？俗話說“孩子還是自己的親”！不是自己的企業(yè)，我管你生死呢！我拿到好處就行！現(xiàn)在的光伏也有這傾向，由最初的利潤豐厚到薄利多銷再到產(chǎn)能過剩！而國內(nèi)對光伏應(yīng)用稀少！ 難道中國的太陽不夠大？生產(chǎn)了那么多，自己又不用。?！，F(xiàn)在的狀況是，買家提高關(guān)稅，你就充當了別人的廉價勞動力！又陷入了中國制造的圈子！如果你想從事這行業(yè)，請關(guān)注如何開發(fā)國內(nèi)市場。那將錢途無量！ 否則只是勞工，與工業(yè)革命時代的紡織工人無異！

優(yōu)質(zhì)回答：不要進入啊，2010年就有人在貼吧反對，沒有人聽，或聽到的人少。是以氣候變暖偽命題----做忽悠局、做陷阱局的產(chǎn)物，等著同情、哀嘆那些光伏的倡導(dǎo)者們吧?。?！聰明的人請不要進入！省市的號號們趕緊找悲果的??！

優(yōu)質(zhì)回答：2011, the technology low, low investment, short construction period of the PV industry in the next ** Industry - battery and components industry, in turn staged a "making money on the herd, the herd on the excess capacity "reincarnation. Since 2009, as the European market, and a large number of orders coming from abroad, rekindled the capital of photovoltaic cells and modules crazy chase. From a volume perspective, the second quarter of this year, Suntech shipments up by 192%; Yingli up by 151%; JA up by 304%; Artes up by 276%. From the net, the first half, up all these leading companies to profitability, Trina Solar's net profit up by 9 times. The chain second half of 2009, Yingli by 440%; JA by 256%; LDK by 136%. From the gross margin perspective, the average margin of 2.2% from last year's first half, second half of the 14.5% to 18.6% in the first half of this year. From the cells and components of the production point of view, Suntech component production capacity in 2011 reached 1.8GW, an increase 29%; Jiangsu Artes battery capacity of 1.3GW, year on year by 63%; Trina Solar Components production capacity will reach 1.5GW, an increase 58%; JA photovoltaic cell production capacity will reach 1.8GW, an increase of 33%; Zhejiang Yuhui module production capacity will reach 600MW, up by 60%. However, the recent decline in gross margin downstream industry chain has begun warning risk. LDK, Yao Feng said, "the first half of the battery, high-margin components, but the second half of the silicon material and silicon high margin, low-margin cells and modules." Has been high throw of nearly 30 million into the PV shopkeeper Magnetic insiders frankly stated that, from now, the field of photovoltaic cells fire will not last forever, after all technical barriers are not high, the upstream supply of silicon material is the bottleneck. Brilliant ideas: CLS experts for the status quo of China's PV industry expressed concerns about the combination of in-depth study of solar photovoltaic industry related business consulting project, the development of PV industry in China made a number of recommendations as follows: 1, "five" basic idea of ??energy development plan has been formed, the new energy industry is the focus of the next five years. For the photovoltaic industry, it should be practical support to seize the country's industrial policy to promote intra-industry structural upgrading. 2, the field of technical barriers in photovoltaic cells is not high, if sales do not go up, leading to vicious competition, falling prices, solar companies will create 'double play' situation. Therefore, the strength of the photovoltaic business, should be upward chain integration, the formation of silicon material - silicon bar / ingot / silicon - Battery - components integrated business model, by controlling the chain of high-profit sectors to increase the added value. 3, as most companies are focused on photovoltaic cells and modules area, and in photovoltaic applications into smaller areas, so part of the PV business chain can be extended to applications such as solar water heaters and so on. 4, ** PV industry is a need to advocate and support the industry, many countries ** Over the last decade, have introduced a number of incentives to develop solar photovoltaic industry. ** China should introduce more policies to support the development of photovoltaic industry, especially in the application of PV should vigorously support and advocacy, to get rid of the photovoltaic project "does not re-reconstruction" situation. 5, solar companies to combine their strengths and integrated development of the industry trend, a clear future direction for their own market positioning and product mix to make the necessary adjustments. 6, the photovoltaic industry is highly competitive, companies must give full play to the PV capital leverage, through the stock market, bonds and other ways to finance and to consider the adoption of the Combination by leaps and bounds. 7, with the strength of the photovoltaic business through strong cooperation with local ** to build large-scale industrial base, to form a culture of leisure and "PV - carbon," featuring "production, home, business, travel" comprehensive of the city. 8, through the core technology innovations (such as third-generation photovoltaic technology - concentrating technology), barriers to entry to improve industry, raise the level of competition in the PV business. 9, photovoltaic companies need to build a strategy-based control system, through internal control improvement, to achieve the strategic objectives landing. 10, the industry needs to improve the awareness and level of risk management, pay close attention to the international upstream and downstream market trends, while minimizing changes to the photovoltaic industry, international exchange rate impact. CLS experts believe that despite China's PV industry has developed rapidly, but in the photovoltaic applications, and no breakthroughs, but the basic domestic solar companies in the midstream and downstream industry chain, subject to the upstream supply of raw materials and foreign market and exchange rate changes. Therefore, the PV industry must accelerate the process of industrial upgrading, supply and sales to get rid of the "double kill" dilemma. Meanwhile, the PV industry as a typical new energy industry, CLS strongly urged countries with more policy support to reduce the cost of production and technology, encourage technological innovation, promote the development of China's PV industry. 2011年，技術(shù)門檻低、投資少、建設(shè)周期短的光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)中下**業(yè)——電池和組件行業(yè)，又將上演“有錢賺就一哄而上，一哄而上就產(chǎn)能過剩、”的輪回。2009年以來，隨著歐洲市場回暖，大批從國外飛來的訂單，再度引發(fā)了資本對光伏電池和組件的瘋狂追逐。 從出貨量看，今年二季度，尚德出貨量同比增192%；英利同比增151%；晶澳同比增304%；阿特斯同比增276%。從凈利潤看，上半年，這些龍頭企業(yè)同比皆扭虧為盈，天合光能的凈利同比增9倍。而環(huán)比2009年下半年，英利增440%；晶澳增256%；賽維增136%。從毛利率看，平均毛利從去年上半年的2.2%、下半年的14.5%增至今年上半年的18.6%。從電池片和組件的產(chǎn)能上看，無錫尚德2011年組件產(chǎn)能將達到1.8GW，同比增29%；江蘇阿特斯電池產(chǎn)能達1.3GW，同比增63%；天合光能組件產(chǎn)能將達1.5GW，同比增58%；晶澳光伏電池產(chǎn)能將達1.8GW，同比增33%；浙江昱輝組件產(chǎn)能將達600MW，同比增60%。 然而，近期中下游產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈毛利的下降已經(jīng)開始警示風險。賽維LDK的姚峰表示，“上半年電池、組件毛利高，但下半年硅料和硅片毛利高，電池和組件毛利率低?！币押罃S近30億進軍光伏的橫店東磁內(nèi)部人士坦陳，從現(xiàn)在來看，光伏電池領(lǐng)域不可能永遠持續(xù)紅火，畢竟技術(shù)壁壘不高，上游硅料供給也是瓶頸。 華彩觀點： 華彩專家對于我國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀深表憂慮，在深入研究光伏行業(yè)結(jié)合光伏企業(yè)的相關(guān)咨詢項目，對我國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展提出如下若干建議： 1、“十二五”能源發(fā)展規(guī)劃的基本思路已經(jīng)形成，新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)是未來五年發(fā)展的重點。對于光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)來說，應(yīng)該切實抓住國家的產(chǎn)業(yè)扶持政策，推進產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部的結(jié)構(gòu)性升級。 2、光伏電池領(lǐng)域技術(shù)壁壘不高，如果銷量漲不上去，惡性競爭導(dǎo)致價格不斷下滑，將對光伏企業(yè)造成‘雙殺’的局面。因此，對于有實力的光伏企業(yè)，應(yīng)該進行產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的向上整合，形成硅料—硅棒/硅錠/硅片—電池—組件一體化的商業(yè)模式，通過控制產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的高利潤環(huán)節(jié)來增加附加值。 3、由于大部分光伏企業(yè)都集中在電池和組件領(lǐng)域，而在光伏的應(yīng)用環(huán)節(jié)投入較少，因此部分光伏企業(yè)可以將產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈拓展到應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域，如光伏熱水器等。 4、光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)是一個需要**大力倡導(dǎo)和扶持的產(chǎn)業(yè)，很多國家**近十幾年來，相繼出臺了不少鼓勵政策來發(fā)展光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)光伏。中國**應(yīng)該推出更多的政策支持光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展，特別是在光伏的應(yīng)用上應(yīng)該大力扶持與倡導(dǎo)，擺脫對光伏項目“重建不重用”的局面。 5、光伏企業(yè)要結(jié)合自身的優(yōu)勢以及整合行業(yè)的發(fā)展趨勢，明確未來的發(fā)展方向，對自身的市場定位及產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)進行必要的調(diào)整。 6、光伏行業(yè)競爭激烈，光伏企業(yè)必須充分發(fā)揮資本杠桿的作用，通過股票上市、債券等方式來進行融資，并考慮通過產(chǎn)融結(jié)合來實現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展。 7、具備實力的光伏企業(yè)可以通過與當?shù)?*的強力合作，打造大規(guī)模的產(chǎn)業(yè)基地，形成以文化休閑和“光伏-低碳”為特色的“產(chǎn)、居、商、旅”綜合性城區(qū)。 8、通過核心技術(shù)的創(chuàng)新（如第三代光伏技術(shù)-聚光技術(shù)），提高產(chǎn)業(yè)進入的門檻，提升光伏企業(yè)競爭的層次。 9、光伏企業(yè)需要打造基于戰(zhàn)略的管控體系，通過企業(yè)內(nèi)部控制力的提升，來實現(xiàn)戰(zhàn)略目標落地。 10、整個行業(yè)需要提高風險管理的意識和水平，密切關(guān)注國際上下游市場的變化趨勢，同時盡可能減少國際匯率變化給光伏行業(yè)帶來的沖擊。 華彩專家認為，盡管我國的光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅速，但在光伏的應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域并沒有取得突破性進展，同時國內(nèi)的光伏企業(yè)基本處于產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的中下游，受制于上游原材料的供給和國外市場及匯率的變化。因此，光伏行業(yè)必須加快推進產(chǎn)業(yè)升級的進程，擺脫供給和銷量“雙殺”的困境。同時，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)作為典型的新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)，華彩強烈呼吁國家以更多的政策扶持來降低企業(yè)生產(chǎn)和技術(shù)應(yīng)用成本，鼓勵企業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，推動我國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展。