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【專家解說】：石油危機(jī)： 擺脫不了戰(zhàn)爭的影子 如果從近年油價(jià)上漲的軌跡看，新一輪石油屬于“漸進(jìn)式”上漲，到2008年達(dá)到了矛盾爆發(fā)的“臨界點(diǎn)”?？v觀近年來的國際環(huán)境，油價(jià)同樣擺脫不了戰(zhàn)爭的影子。 有學(xué)者早就提出“2004年是石油危機(jī)的爆發(fā)之年”，這一年正是伊戰(zhàn)爆發(fā)的第二年。 有數(shù)據(jù)顯示，伊戰(zhàn)爆發(fā)一周年后，由于戰(zhàn)爭顯現(xiàn)出持久戰(zhàn)跡象，原本認(rèn)為戰(zhàn)爭會(huì)很快結(jié)束的想法，逐漸轉(zhuǎn)變成了對(duì)石油供應(yīng)的擔(dān)憂。當(dāng)年3月27日，國際原油期貨首次超過每桶30美元。此后，伊戰(zhàn)背景下的油價(jià)上漲速度明顯加快：2004年為41.5美元，2005年為56.7美元，2006年為66.2美元，2007年（截至10月份）為72.5美元。而到了2008年1月3日，國際原油期貨價(jià)格盤中首次突破100美元。 前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席格林斯潘在回憶錄中，隱諱地表達(dá)了伊戰(zhàn)的石油政治企圖，認(rèn)為兩場戰(zhàn)爭（海灣戰(zhàn)爭與伊戰(zhàn)）是兩次石油危機(jī)的邏輯連接點(diǎn)。 能源爭奪： 炒作油價(jià)的“政治土壤” 北京大學(xué)國際關(guān)系學(xué)院博士生導(dǎo)師、《美國國家戰(zhàn)略》一書的作者劉金質(zhì)教授認(rèn)為，新一輪石油危機(jī)的蔓延，與前幾次石油供應(yīng)驟然減少不同，這次危機(jī)中石油供需不存在石油短缺的情況。在供需沒發(fā)生根本改變的情況下，這次油價(jià)飆升的炒作成分更多些。在各國重視能源、爭奪能源的大背景下，國際油價(jià)顯得非?！懊舾小?，從而易于被各種市場與政治力量無限“放大”。 如果從更大范圍觀察，除了資本在炒作能源外，各國實(shí)際上也在“炒”能源，爭奪能源的“無硝煙戰(zhàn)爭”氛圍很濃厚。非洲與北極自去年以來備受關(guān)注，就是因?yàn)檫@兩個(gè)區(qū)域?qū)⑹俏磥碛蜌忾_采的新領(lǐng)地。 同樣，自去年以來，伊朗、委內(nèi)瑞拉兩國一直在利用“能源武器”拓展外交空間。由于伊朗能源豐富，歐盟、俄羅斯、日本、印度等國與伊朗存在能源合作，極大牽制了安理會(huì)對(duì)伊朗制裁的步伐，使美國孤立伊朗的任何企圖都變得復(fù)雜化。對(duì)委內(nèi)瑞拉的查韋斯來說，國內(nèi)油氣資源則是對(duì)抗美國的核心本錢。 劉金質(zhì)教授認(rèn)為，俄羅斯日益嫻熟地動(dòng)用“能源牌”，就是發(fā)揮“能源外交”的很好案例。在全球能源問題日益突出的背景下，俄羅斯將提高油氣產(chǎn)能、發(fā)展對(duì)外油氣合作作為拓展國家利益、提升大國地位的重要手段，借此加快自身國力的恢復(fù)與發(fā)展。 “心理預(yù)期”推高油價(jià) 早在2008年前，就有科學(xué)家認(rèn)為，石油生產(chǎn)的“巔峰”時(shí)期將在未來5~10年到來。一旦石油生產(chǎn)“巔峰”時(shí)代到來，石油產(chǎn)量將逐年下降。 從長遠(yuǎn)看，由于全球?qū)δ茉葱枨箢A(yù)期的增量呈上升趨勢，而能源又具有不可再生與稀缺性，類似“心理預(yù)期”將使油價(jià)始終維持高位運(yùn)行。 即便是類似太陽能、風(fēng)能、生物源這樣的再生能源，在最好的情況下，也只能滿足工業(yè)化國家能源需求的四分之一。雖然供需矛盾短期內(nèi)可以解決，油價(jià)短期內(nèi)可以迅速回落，但從長期來說，“能源逐步枯竭論”的預(yù)期，始終是投機(jī)資本興風(fēng)作浪的支撐點(diǎn)。 因此，要想解決國際油價(jià)的攀升，還必須消除全球?qū)窈竽茉瓷a(chǎn)與供應(yīng)不足的擔(dān)憂，化解類似“石油枯竭”的心理預(yù)期。不過，就目前來看，“能源短缺”的心理預(yù)期顯然無法消除。 The oil crisis: Could not escape the shadow of war If rising oil prices in recent years from the track, a new round of oil a "gradual" rise to the 2008 outbreak of the conflict reached a "critical point." Looking at the international environment in recent years, oil prices also could not escape the shadow of war. Some scholars have long put forward the "oil crisis in 2004 is the year of the outbreak," This year is the second year of the war in Iraq broke out. Statistics show that after the first anniversary of the outbreak of the war in Iraq, the war showed signs of a protracted war, was that war would end very soon the idea of a gradual change in the oil supply concerns. That on March 27, the first international crude oil futures more than 30 U.S. dollars a barrel. Since then, the war in Iraq against the background of the rising oil prices significantly speed up the pace: in 2004 was 41.5 dollars in 2005 to 56.7 U.S. dollars and 66.2 U.S. dollars for 2006, 2007 (as at October) to 72.5 U.S. dollars. And to the January 3, 2008, after international crude oil futures prices exceeded 100 U.S. dollars. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in his memoirs, Yin Hui expressed the political attempts to Iraq's oil that the two wars (the Gulf War and the war in Iraq) is the two oil crises of the logic connection point. Energy for: The oil price speculation "political soil" Institute of International Relations at Peking University doctoral tutor, "U.S. national strategy," a book the author Professor Liu Jinzhi, a new round of the spread of the oil crisis, and on previous occasions to reduce the supply of oil suddenly different, the crisis in oil supply and demand of oil shortage does not exist The situation. Did not occur in the supply and demand fundamental change in the circumstances, the surge in oil prices of more components such speculation. In countries attach importance to energy, energy for the big context, the international oil price is very "sensitive" and thus easy to market and the various political forces unlimited "Larger." If the larger scope of observation, in addition to the capital in energy speculation, in fact all countries are "speculation" energy, energy for the "no smoke of war" atmosphere is very strong. Africa and the Arctic since last year of concern, it is because the two regions will be the future of oil and gas exploitation of the new territory. Similarly, since last year, Iran and Venezuela have been using "energy weapon" expanding its diplomatic space. As energy-rich Iran, the European Union, Russia, Japan, India and other countries for energy cooperation with Iran exist, the Council's great to contain the pace of sanctions on Iran, the United States any attempt to isolate Iran have become complicated. Venezuela's Chavez, the domestic oil and gas resources is the core capital against the United States. Professor Liu Jinzhi that Russia increasingly skilful use of "energy card", is to play "energy diplomacy" very good case. In the global energy issues have become increasingly prominent as a backdrop, Russia will increase oil and gas production, development of foreign oil and gas cooperation as the interests of developing countries, upgrading the status of an important means to accelerate its national strength of the recovery and development. "Psychological expected to" push up oil prices As early as 2008, scientists have considered that the oil production "peak" period in the next five to 10 arrival. once oil production "peak" times come, oil production will decline year by year. The long run, global demand for energy due to the expected incremental upward trend, but also with non-renewable energy and scarce, similar to "psychological expectations" will always maintain high oil prices. Even if the similar solar, wind, biological sources such renewable energy sources, in the best of circumstances, can only meet the energy needs of the industrialized countries of the quarter. Although the conflict between supply and demand can be solved in the short term, oil prices could rapidly fall in the short term, but long term, "gradual depletion of energy," expected, is always the strong point of speculative capital stir up trouble. Therefore, in order to solve the rising international oil prices, we must also eliminate the future of global energy production and supply shortage concerns, similar to defuse the "oil depletion" psychological expectations. However, the present situation, "energy shortage" of the psychological expectations obviously can not eliminate.